Autumn Budget 2026: Predictions, Likely Tax Rises and What to Expect
Quick answer
The Autumn Budget 2026 is expected in late October or November 2026, the first under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. With frozen thresholds already raising tax by stealth, the most likely moves are further freezes, higher taxes on dividends, savings and property income, and tighter pension and ISA rules. Here is what is being predicted and how to prepare.
The Autumn Budget 2026 will be the first delivered under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July 2026. With the public finances still under pressure and the manifesto pledge not to raise the headline rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT for “working people”, most forecasters expect the Chancellor to raise revenue through threshold freezes and targeted taxes on wealth, savings, dividends and property rather than the main rates. This guide sets out the likely date, the changes being predicted, and the practical steps you can take now.
When is the Autumn Budget 2026?
No date has been formally confirmed at the time of writing. Based on recent convention, the most likely window is late October to November 2026, with a Wednesday the usual choice. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast is published alongside it. We will update this page the moment the date is announced.
Why tax is likely to rise even if rates don’t
The single biggest revenue-raiser of recent years has not been a rate rise at all — it is the freeze on tax thresholds. The personal allowance (£12,570) and higher-rate threshold (£50,270) have been frozen for years and are currently set to stay frozen. As wages rise, more of your income is dragged into tax and more people cross into the 40% band — a process known as fiscal drag. A freeze extension raises billions without a single rate changing.
See what a freeze means for your own take-home pay as your salary rises:
Predicted changes: what is on the table
| Area | What is being predicted | Who it affects |
|---|---|---|
| Income tax thresholds | Freeze extended beyond 2028 (fiscal drag) | Almost every taxpayer |
| Dividend tax | Higher rates and/or a smaller £500 allowance | Investors, company directors |
| Capital Gains Tax | Rates nudged closer to income tax; allowance held at £3,000 | Landlords, share investors |
| Pensions | Salary-sacrifice NI relief capped; tax-free lump sum reviewed | Higher earners, savers |
| Cash ISAs | Lower cash limit to steer money into investments | Cash savers |
| Property income | Tighter reliefs for landlords | Buy-to-let owners |
Income tax: the stealth-tax squeeze
The clearest prediction is continuity: frozen allowances and thresholds. If you get a pay rise, more of it is taxed, and a rise that tips you over £50,270 exposes the slice above to 40%. The other trap to watch is the £100,000 point, where the personal allowance tapers away and creates an effective 60% marginal rate between £100,000 and £125,140. Pension contributions remain the main legal way to manage both.
Dividends and Capital Gains: the likeliest rises
Because dividend and capital gains taxes sit outside the “working people” pledge, they are the softest targets. Expect pressure on the £500 dividend allowance and the £3,000 CGT annual exempt amount, and possibly higher CGT rates. If you are sitting on gains you intended to realise anyway, using this year’s exemption before 5 April 2027 is a reasonable hedge.
Pensions: relief in the spotlight
Pension tax relief costs the Treasury tens of billions, so it is perennially reviewed. The changes most often floated are a cap on National Insurance relief for salary-sacrifice contributions and a review of the 25% tax-free lump sum. None is confirmed. The practical point: pension contributions are still one of the most powerful reliefs available today, and using this year’s annual allowance is rarely a decision you will regret.
ISAs and savings
A lower cash ISA limit has already been signalled to encourage investment over cash. With savings rates higher than in the 2010s, more ordinary savers are also breaching the Personal Savings Allowance and paying tax on interest for the first time. Check whether your savings interest is now taxable:
How to prepare before the Budget
- Use this year’s ISA allowance (£20,000) — allowances can be cut but rarely clawed back retrospectively.
- Make pension contributions while current relief applies, within your annual allowance.
- Realise planned capital gains using the £3,000 exemption before 5 April 2027 if you were going to sell anyway.
- Review dividend timing if you run a company and can influence when dividends are paid.
- Don’t act on rumour alone — keep decisions reversible until the Budget confirms the detail.
The bottom line
Expect the 2026 Budget to raise money quietly — through frozen thresholds and higher taxes on dividends, gains, savings and property — rather than through headline rate rises. The winning strategy is boring but effective: use your current-year allowances, keep contributing to pensions and ISAs, and revisit the detail here once the Chancellor stands up. We update this guide as each prediction is confirmed or dropped.
Written by
Laura Michelle Davis — Chartered Tax Adviser (CTA)
ACCA · CTA (Chartered Tax Adviser) · ATT · BSc Economics, UC Berkeley
Laura Michelle Davis is a Chartered Tax Adviser (CTA) who also holds the ACCA and ATT qualifications and a BSc in Economics from UC Berkeley. She specialises in UK personal tax, covering income tax, National Insurance, self-employment and capital gains, and has built her career making complicated rules easy to follow. At TaxFly, Laura writes and edits the tax guides and explainers, checking that figures reflect current HMRC rates and that every explanation answers the question a real person is actually asking. Her goal is plain-English clarity you can trust and act on.
